User blog:Hurricane Layten/June 13, 2017 Discussion
Several things are happening today in the tropics, which may be showing signs of stirring after the quietest start to tropical cyclone activity since 1954. Amongst these are a tropical cyclone in the eastern pacific, 2 potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and the remains of a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific. But first, lets talk about Tropical Depression Calvin, which is inland Mexico, moving to the west-northwest. Calvin is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrains of Mexico later today, and could feed a developing low pressure area that has formed to its southwest over the Pacific. Although Calvin is inland and weakening, interactions with a monsoonal trough are causing life threatening flash flooding and mud/land slides across many of the areas being affected. If you are in this area, or nearby, you need to remain alert, and listen to both the NHC and your local forecast offices in regards to information and instructions relating to this system. In the western Pacific basin, the remains of Tropical Storm Merbok are now well inland China, and have become extratropical. Although the system could regenerate once it reaches the Pacific again, this is unlikely to occur due to hostile shear and cooler waters near the Japanese islands. In the Caribbean Sea, an area of interest has been highlighted this afternoon by the NHC, and has been given a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. The low is forecast to develop from the ongoing monsoon troughing in the Pacific, and modelling has been hinting at a possible tropical cyclone developing from the expected low in several days time. On other notes, an unusually strong tropical wave has emerged from the coast of Africa today, and some of the modelling is picking up on potential development as the low moves out into the Caribbean Sea in 5-6 days time. Both GFS and Euro show development of the wave whilst it passes south of the Lesser Antilles, before taking it towards the northwest in the extended (7+ days) range. Although all this activity in the Atlantic remains uncertain, its not completely impossible to get one of these rogue storms develop during the early season, and so people need to look out and get into the habit of regularly checking the NHC website, especially when this season has the potential to be one of the busiest for several years. One more thing to say to wrap up this post. A convectively coupled Kelvin wave, along with the possibility for a Madden-Julian Oscillation in making it into the Atlantic basin look set to stir up the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks, which may bring us our 2nd and 3rd named storms if the shear lowers enough, and the Saharan Air Layer becomes less dominant across the main development region. However, even if the potential activity does turn out not to happen, it should be taken as a wake up call those in regions affected by tropical cyclones, particularly in the Atlantic, where much off the basin is forecast for an above average risk of a hurricane landfall. Remain vigilant, get your supplies ready, and if you do end up under a tropical cyclone warning, even if it's only a tropical storm, take the actions advised by the NHC and NWS. Every year, most of the deaths associated with tropical cyclones are caused needlessly, because people are poorly prepared, or don't follow instructions issued by the local forecast organisations. Category:Blog posts